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☆ Japan Is a Preview of China's Ugly Recession, Stock Market Crash
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

But Japan's economy — the long-unconscious patient — recently started to wiggle its toe. The country's stock market is ripping; the Nikkei recently exceeded the all-time highs it set 34 years ago. Now, Koo says, Chinese academics and policymakers are flocking to Japan to glean some kind of wisdom from the country's experience. Advertisement"This has made Japan attractive for foreign investors, and the stock market has done well," Koo said. Even without a currency war with Beijing, the world is building defenses against another wave of Chinese goods.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, there's, Nomura, Richard Koo, Koo, Shinzo Abe, Japan's, What's, it's, we're, haven't, Xi Jinping, doesn't, Xi, we've, Brasília Organizations: Nikkei, Goldman, Bank of Japan, Corporations, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Peterson Institute, European Union, China Locations: East Asia, China, Japan, Real, Tokyo, Beijing, Brussels, Brasília, American, Washington, Brazil, Turkey

☆ 'The higher they go, the harder they fall': A veteran bear says US stocks could crash 39% as earnings disappoint — but investors can manage risk by making these 10 moves now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan

☆ Japan stocks are roaring back. This rally may be different from the 1990's 'bubble high'
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The bubble burst after the Bank of Japan tightened monetary policy at the start of 1990, triggering the collapse of equity and land prices. But analysts who spoke to CNBC said Japan is not headed for another crash like the one during the bubble. Furthermore, "current high inflation rates in Japan are due to higher import costs on the back of a weaker yen and high commodity prices. What led to Japan's bubble? Nikkei reported in March that share buybacks by Japanese companies was set to reach their highest level in 16 years.

Persons: Kazuhiro NOGI, KAZUHIRO NOGI, Nogi, Dong Chen, Ryota Abe, Abe, Japan's, Shinzo Abe, Chen, SMBC, Warren Buffet's Organizations: Nikkei, Getty, Afp, Bank of Japan, CNBC, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Tokyo Exchange, Billionaire, Global Locations: Tokyo, AFP, Japan, China

☆ Japan optimism has been fueled by 'game-changing' reforms and Warren Buffett: Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The Tokyo Exchange Group recently finalized its market restructuring rules. Warren Buffett's bullish calls on Japanese equities has also helped boost confidence among foreign investors. It could in turn lead to a domino effect among other Japanese companies once the big players start to make changes. Corporate governance is the "third arrow" of the three core tenets of Abenomics — monetary easing and fiscal stimulus are the other two. Buffett's May disclosures helped spur 10 straight weeks of net foreign purchases of Japanese equities.

Persons: Richard A, Brooks, Oliver Lee, Warren Buffett's bullish, —, Yunosuke Ikeda, Nomura's Ikeda, Shinzo Abe, Warren, Berkshire, Asli, Shuntaro Takeuchi, Matthews Asia, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, that's, Matthews Asia's Takeuchi, We're, Oliver Lee Eastspring, Eastspring's Lee Organizations: Afp, Getty, Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tokyo Exchange Group, CNBC, Tokyo bourse, Berkshire Hathaway, Kyoto, Investing, Buffett, Foreigners, Japan Ministry of Finance, Kyoto University's Graduate School of Management, Graduate School of Economics, Mitsui & Co, Hitachi Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Singapore, Abenomics, San Francisco

The precedent set at the "shunto" spring wage talks also influences wages at smaller firms that employ seven out of 10 Japanese workers. The shunto wages eventually peaked in 1974 with a record 33% rise in pay. Wary of increasing fixed costs, many Japanese firms have long opted to pay one-off bonuses in good times rather than raise base pay. Economists projected a 2.85% wage increase in a January poll, with base pay increases accounting for 1.08% and 1.78% from an increase in additional salary, based on seniority. Asked whether they would carry out base pay increase, 41.6% said they intended to.

With the approval, government nominee Kazuo Ueda will officially succeed incumbent BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. But the BOJ's current policy is a necessary, appropriate means to achieve 2% inflation," Ueda told parliament last month, signalling that he was in no rush to hike rates. "I'll succeed the policy in the context of seeking to hit the BOJ's 2% inflation stably and sustainably," Ueda replied. Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor at Japan's Hosei University, see the appointment of Ueda as a sign Kishida wants the BOJ to phase out the legacy policy of Abenomics. "Ueda is saying the BOJ will maintain low rates for now.

The precedent set at the "shunto" spring wage talks also influences wages at smaller firms that employ seven out of 10 Japanese workers and supply big manufacturers. The focus on job security, rather than higher pay, is blamed for keeping Japan's wage growth stagnant. WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF THE WAGE TALKS? Analysts expect big firms to offer wage hikes of around 3% in wage talks, which would be the fastest pace of increase since 1997 when Japan was on the cusp of deflation. Kishida has approached Japan's union umbrella Rengo in prodding firms to hike base pay.

☆ Asia markets set to fall after Wall St logs worst week for the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Tokyo Tower, center, stands illuminated in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019. Under Abenomics, as its known, the price goal was supposed to be achieved in just two years. Photographer: Keith Bedford /Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAsia Pacific markets are set to start the week lower on Monday after major indexes on Wall Street recorded their worst week for 2023. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 opened 0.95% lower, while Japanese markets are also headed for a lower open. Japan will also release its unemployment numbers later in the week.

Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old university professor who has kept a low profile despite strong credentials as a monetary policy expert, ticked some important boxes. While he was not even on the list of dark horse candidates floated by the media, Ueda was well known in global central bank circles. The bank's preferred choices were incumbent deputy governor Amamiya, as well as former deputies Hiroshi Nakaso and Hirohide Yamaguchi, given their deep knowledge on monetary policy. Matsuno said he hoped the BOJ works closely with the government and guides monetary policy flexibly, when asked whether Ueda's appointment could lead to a retreat from Abenomics. While he warned of the rising cost of the BOJ's yield control policy, Ueda has called for the need to keep monetary policy loose to ensure Japan stably achieves the bank's 2% inflation target.

☆ Bank of Japan’s new governor starts on back foot
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, Feb 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Academic Kazuo Ueda faces a rocky time as the new governor of the Bank of Japan (8301.T). He is stepping down just as his signature yield curve control (YCC) policy is becoming increasingly unsustainable as domestic inflation rises. The Nikkei news service reported that officials had approached Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya and were rebuffed. It seems likely Ueda will have to modify or abandon YCC given how much damage it is doing to the bond market and the BOJ’s balance sheet. Follow @petesweeneypro on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSJapan's government on Feb. 14 named academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become the next governor of the country’s central bank.

☆ Japan’s next central bank chief may rue promotion
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

In fact, it has spent an average of 1.3 trillion yen per trading day since the band widened: nearly 50 trillion yen in total, per Refinitiv data, and still counting. The central bank already owns over half of Japan’s sovereign bonds and is sure to suffer large losses when their prices fall, which they eventually must. The central bank chief must also work to put the country’s vast stack of inert money back to work. Kuroda effectively put the central bank at the service of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” stimulus programme. Fumio Kishida, the current leader, is having popularity problems and will want the central bank to support his aggressive agenda, which includes hiking defence spending, promoting innovative startups and redistributing wealth.

☆ Factbox: Kazuo Ueda: Who is the new Bank of Japan governor and what can we expect from him?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Japan's government is likely to appoint Kazuo Ueda, an academic and a former member of the Bank of Japan's policy board, as the next central bank governor, two government officials told Reuters on Friday. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy, but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. The following are some key questions and answers about the next central bank governor in the world's third-largest economy and the challenges he faces. He is an external director at JGC Holdings Corp (1963.T), an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. In a 2016 article, Ueda wrote that the BOJ's ultra-easy policy seemed to be "reaching its limits".

The BOJ’s YCC faces a reckoningThe surprise news left investors and analysts trying to parse Ueda's recent commentary. "There is probably a lack of clarity on Ueda's policy leanings at the moment, but at least it is clear that Amamiya (who is seen as a dove) is out. That removes one of the headwinds for the yen," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "The knee-jerk reaction in yen appreciation is more of a reaction to Amamiya being out of the race." I think the new team means that they will redesign the BOJ's monetary policy, not maintain the current policy," said Takayuki Miyajima, a senior economist at Sony Financial Group in Tokyo.

☆ Japan's top economic panel debates potential shift away from 'Abenomics'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The Japanese government's top economic policy panel on Monday held its first round of special sessions that will discuss the medium-to-long term direction of fiscal and monetary policies, including the pros and cons of "Abenomics". Japan pursued a reflationary policy led by monetary stimulus under former premier Shinzo Abe which has helped pull the world's No. Financial markets are, however, now more focused on if and when the central bank will pull back on monetary stimulus given sharp rises in inflation. It was not clear how many special sessions the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) has planned. The sessions do not intend to discuss the Bank of Japan's exit strategy or draft new policy objectives to review a 2013 written mission statement between the government and the central bank, Cabinet Office officials said.

☆ Economists say BOJ's Amamiya is top governor candidate, tightening this week unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.

☆ Ex-BOJ deputy Yamaguchi emerging as next c.bank head contender -Sankei
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi, a vocal critic of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's stimulus programme, is emerging as a strong candidate to become next head of the central bank, the Sankei newspaper reported on Thursday. Yamaguchi had been considered a less likely candidate compared with deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya and former deputy Hiroshi Nakaso. But Yamaguchi is attracting more attention as a strong candidate as Kishida's administration distances itself from Abenomics, the Sankei said, adding that Kishida's choice of new BOJ governor will become clear as early as next month. A career central banker with deep experience in monetary policy drafting, Yamaguchi served as deputy governor for five years until 2013. Since retiring from the BOJ, Yamaguchi has warned of the rising cost of prolonged easing and criticised Kuroda's stimulus as relying too much on the view that central banks can influence public perception with monetary policy.

☆ Japan to consider revising Abe-era deflation fighting mandate - sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan next year will consider revising its decade-old blueprint for fighting deflation, sources said, as financial markets bet that a weak yen and rising consumer prices will force the central bank to finally drop its ultra-loose monetary policy. The pledge has served as the backbone of Kuroda’s radical monetary stimulus and justification for keeping Japan’s interest rates ultra-low, even as other central banks tighten monetary policy to combat stubbornly high inflation. Kyodo news agency reported on Saturday that the government is set to revise the joint statement to make the BOJ’s inflation target a more flexible goal, with some leeway. SHIFTING FOCUSA revision to the joint statement would mark the final nail in the coffin for former premier’s Abenomics stimulus programme, which relied heavily on Kuroda’s massive stimulus to pull Japan out of deflation. Analysts say any revision that waters down the status of the BOJ’s 2% inflation target could serve as a trigger for phasing out Kuroda’s stimulus programme.

Mourners offer flowers at the altar outside Nippon Budokan Hall which will host a state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, Japan September 27, 2022. REUTERS/Issei KatoTOKYO, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Two months after he was assassinated, Shinzo Abe is still stirring controversy, evidence of how the polarising former premier's legacy is shaping Japanese politics on everything from defence to monetary policy. Japan's longest-serving prime minister was a divisive figure who was dogged by scandals. That's a reflection of how Abe transformed both the LDP and Japan's policy landscape, experts say. That could mean more of the ultra-loose policy and fiscal stimulus set in motion under "Abenomics".

☆ The Japanese yen is at 24-year lows. Here's what to expect at the next BOJ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen is hovering close to its weakest levels since 1998, and authorities have hinted at taking action to stem the currency's decline. The widening rate differential has caused the yen to weaken significantly, with the Japanese currency falling about 25% year-to-date. Loading chart...Last week, the Bank of Japan reportedly conducted a foreign exchange "check," according to Japanese newspaper Nikkei – a move largely seen as preparing for formal intervention. watch nowStrategists at Goldman Sachs also don't see the central bank shifting from its yield curve control policy, pointing to its hawkish global peers. End of AbenomicsMonetary policy changes by Japanese authorities as unlikely, chances being especially low under BOJ governor Harukiho Kuroda, UBS Chief economist for Japan Masamichi Adachi told CNBC last week.

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